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Genoa CFC
vs
AC Milan
Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Kickoff: May 5, 2025 6:45 PM
Monday night’s Serie A clash sees AC Milan travel to the Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa, with kick-off scheduled for 19:45 UK time. Genoa, under the leadership of a resilient yet modest squad, are searching for consistency as the season draws to a close, while Sérgio Conceição’s AC Milan aim to reinforce their European ambitions. With Nicola Leali guarding the net for Genoa and Mike Maignan between the posts for Milan, this fixture brings together two sides with vastly different ambitions and capabilities. Both clubs are dealing with form fluctuations, but Milan remain firm favourites, especially given their historical dominance and squad depth.
Genoa vs AC Milan Form & Head-To-Head
Genoa CFC
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AC Milan
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No previous matches found between these teams.
Genoa vs AC Milan Team News
The Genoa v Milan team news reveals two squads with differing profiles and depth. Genoa’s campaign has seen them produce just 29 goals, with Andrea Pinamonti leading the line and providing a modest attacking threat. Midfield duties have largely rested on the shoulders of Milan Badelj and the industrious Morten Frendrup, while Johan Vásquez and Aaron Martín anchor a defence that has conceded 41 goals to date. Nicola Leali continues to be a busy man in goal, facing over 130 shots on target this season.
AC Milan, meanwhile, benefit from more firepower and tactical depth. Christian Pulisic, with 70 career goals, brings pace and precision, while Tijjani Reijnders adds balance and creativity in midfield. Recent additions such as Santiago Giménez and Youssouf Fofana have boosted squad competition. With 53 goals scored this season and an xG of 58.2, the Rossoneri are more clinical, while their defensive solidity is underlined by Mike Maignan’s 12 clean sheets and a strong 72.3% save rate.
Genoa vs AC Milan Betting Tips
Genoa v Milan betting tips must consider the stark contrast in recent form and quality. Genoa have struggled against higher-ranked teams, managing just 2 wins in 20 matches against sides above them. They’ve conceded 31 goals in those matches and failed to score in nearly half of them, indicating a blunt attacking edge when facing more organised opponents.
In contrast, Milan are efficient against teams lower in the table. With 14 wins out of 20 such encounters, they’ve netted 40 goals and kept 11 clean sheets. They’ve only failed to score once against lower-tier sides. Milan’s attacking edge, bolstered by Pulisic’s creativity and Reijnders’ engine in midfield, suggests they’ll create plenty of chances. Away from home, they average 1.6 goals per game – an important stat when factoring into betting markets.
Given Genoa’s defensive record at home (20 goals conceded in 17 matches), a Milan win and over 1.5 goals looks a strong pick. Consider also Milan to score in both halves.
Genoa vs AC Milan Match Predictions
The Genoa v Milan prediction leans heavily in favour of the visitors. Milan’s superior squad depth, attacking efficiency, and historical form make them clear favourites in this encounter. Genoa’s inability to convert and their underwhelming home record against stronger opposition further weaken their prospects.
With Genoa scoring just 14 goals in 20 games against teams above them and failing to score in 9 of those, Milan’s defensive setup, led by Maignan, should comfortably contain them. Meanwhile, Milan’s structured pressing and fast transitions are likely to expose gaps in Genoa’s midfield and back line.
Expect a dominant Milan performance, with a likely result favouring the Rossoneri by a multi-goal margin.
Match Prediction: AC Milan to win.
Genoa vs AC Milan Correct Score Tips & Predictions
The Genoa vs AC Milan score prediction should reflect both teams’ scoring patterns and defensive tendencies. Milan’s clean sheet record, combined with Genoa’s goal-scoring struggles, makes a shutout likely. AC Milan have conceded just 16 goals in 20 games against teams below them, while Genoa have failed to score in over 26% of their home fixtures.
Taking that into account, Milan keeping a clean sheet and scoring multiple goals aligns with the data. A 2-0 or 3-0 away win is highly plausible.
Correct Score Prediction: Genoa 0-2 AC Milan
Genoa vs AC Milan Over & Under Goals Betting Tips
Genoa vs AC Milan Over/Under goals prediction hinges on Milan’s scoring ability and Genoa’s conservative approach. The over/under market is particularly intriguing here. Genoa games at home average 2.23 goals per match, while Milan away games average 3.0. Yet Genoa’s lack of attacking output suggests a low likelihood of both teams scoring.
Therefore, the stronger angle is Over 1.5 Total Goals with Genoa under 0.5 team goals. Milan’s attacking efficiency, paired with Genoa’s struggle against better sides, aligns with a Milan-dominated result with underwhelming offensive resistance from the hosts.
Over/Under Prediction: Over 1.5 total goals & Genoa under 0.5 team goals
Genoa vs AC Milan Bet Builder Tip
The Genoa v Milan Bet Builder tip combines value selections based on player performance and team stats. Given Christian Pulisic’s consistent attacking contributions and Genoa’s defensive vulnerability, backing Pulisic to score anytime offers solid value. Milan to win and keep a clean sheet further boosts the odds.
Bet Builder Tip: AC Milan to win, Christian Pulisic to score anytime, and Genoa under 1.5 team goals.
